A tale of two winters

It has been a busy winter here at Woods Hole Group.  Waking up this morning to a dusting of snow here on the Cape, we were reminded that this winter has also been a mild one.  And so we wondered if this milder winter has resulted in fewer and less intense storm-associated high water and wave events and, by extension, less shoreline erosion.

As a start, we decided to look at water levels by examining the residual tides at a nearby NOAA station between September 1 and January 31 of this winter and last winter.  Residual tide is the difference between the elevation of the observed water level and the elevation of the predicted water level.  NOAA makes tide predictions based on known factors that influence tidal height: gravitational pull of the moon and sun, coastal morphology, local water depth, and regional bathymetry.  These predictions also assume average weather conditions.  The observed water level may differ from the predicted water level when weather conditions are abnormal.  Prolonged onshore wind and low barometric pressure systems (i.e. storms) drive sea level higher than predicted, thus positive residual tides (observed exceeds predicted) are indicators of higher than average coastal storm activity.

Here is a look at the hourly residual tides for Chatham, MA (NOAA Station 8447435) for 2010-2011 (red) and 2011-2012 (blue):

Data source: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/

It appears that there were a few more major storm events during 2010-2011 (red peaks) than during 2011-2012 (blue peaks).  Also, on average the residual tide during 2010-2011 (red line) was higher than during 2011-2012 (blue line), meaning there was a greater difference in observed vs. predicted water levels last winter than this winter.

Here’s another way to look a the data:

Data source: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/

We see in this histogram that there was a lower frequency of larger residual tides in the 2011-2012 season than in the 2010-2011 season.  The shift in the curve from right to left (red to blue) indicates that storms affecting Chatham were less intense this winter than they were last winter.

We haven’t determined if these differences are significant, and a look further back into the historical record would provide a better perspective than this snapshot investigation, but the data are consistent with our anecdotal experience this winter.  Whether or not this relatively calm winter will spare our shoreline from excessive erosion remains to be seen.  Reports from some hotly contested cabins on Chatham’s North Beach Island indicate that so far, the seas have been merciful.

What has this winter brought to your area?  More storms or fewer storms?  More erosion or less erosion than usual?  Reports from the field are always welcome.

New sub-glacial map reveals Greenland’s conduit to the sea

Stunning data from the NASA Earth Observatory’s IceBridge program indicates that “Greenland’s Jakobshavn glacier has the potential to influence sea level rise more than any other single feature in the Northern Hemisphere.”

Looking Under Jakobshavn - November 10, 2011 NASA Earth Observatory Image of the Day

Detailed mapping of the bedrock below the fastest flowing glacier in the world revealed that a canyon the width and depth of the Grand Canyon funnels melting ice out to the Atlantic Ocean at a rate of 15 kilometers per year.  Understanding the dynamics of glacial beds allows researchers to better predict the rates of ice-loading to the ocean, which in turn allows them to refine estimates of future sea level rise.

Earth Observatory scientists hope to spin up their sea level rise projections based on this and other IceBridge evidence in time for the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, due out in 2014.  We’re guessing that, based on NASA’s Greenland and Antarctica research and other developments, IPCC will revise the “0.18 to 0.59 meter by 2100″ (from the Fourth Assessment Report) upward for 5AR.  Will it top the “1 meter by 2100″ that is the current general consensus?  We’re on pins and needles…are you?

King tide a window to future, let’s document it!

King Tide to Raise Sea Level on Atlantic Coast – NYTimes.com.

A king tide will be running Wednesday and Thursday because gravitational forces of the sun, the moon and the earth will be lined up in a cue shot of fleeting geometry and rare power. It will raise the water level between one and two feet above normal high tides for many areas on the Atlantic coast. It’s an entirely natural phenomenon. This year, a network of scientists is asking members of the public to take pictures of the tides at their peak, and then again in a week, at their ordinary heights.

An extreme tide can give a telescopic view of a future with rising seas, when tides might routinely reach levels that they now get to only twice a year, said Kate Boicourt, an ecologist with the New York-New Jersey Harbor Estuary Program.

“What we’re seeing Wednesday and Thursday is probably what we normally will be seeing by 2080,” Ms. Boicourt said.

Looks like the highest tides will be occurring Thursday morning, so get out there with your camera and document the event.  It’s one thing to use computer rendering to visualize sea level rise and its effects on the coastline, but actual photographs of expected high water levels are much more powerful communication tools.

Check the tides for your area.  Take a photo of the king tide.  Take another photo from the same spot a week later at high tide to see the difference.

We are currently aware of the following organizations involved in regional king tide photo initiatives:

• New York – New Jersey Harbor Estuary Program (email habitat@harborestuary.org)
• Peconic Estuary Organization
• Long Island Sound Study
• Barnegat Bay Partnership
• Partnership for the Delaware Estuary

In our region, Heather Goldstone of Climatide is collecting king tide photos.

Woods Hole Group will also collect any and all king tide photo sets and deliver them to the appropriate king tide photo initiative organizations.  Send your photos to info@whgrp.com and remember to note the location and time of each photograph.

flickr / brentbat (Brent Pearson)

Competition photo reveals Europe’s worst coastal erosion

About a month ago, we concluded our “Favorite New England Beach” Photo Contest.  Many of the submissions highlighted the combined effects of storms, coastal erosion, and sea-level rise on our precious coastal resources.

We just came across this article on the Environmental Photographer of the Year competition run by The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM), and were struck by the this image from Yorkshire, England:

from ciwem.org

At approximately 6.5 ft/yr average long-term annual erosion, this stretch of the British coast is disappearing fast, but not quite as fast as some of our beaches in Massachusetts.  Food for thought.

Wetlands at a tipping point, coastal wetlands vulnerable

Status and Trends of Wetlands in the Conterminous United States 2004 to 2009.

courtesy of Lisa Brown

The latest U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) report documenting the losses and gains in wetland acreage came out earlier this month.  Commenting on the study’s findings, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar said:

“Wetlands are at a tipping point.  While we have made great strides in conserving and restoring wetlands since the 1950s…we remain on a downward trend that is alarming.  This report…should serve as a call to action to renew our focus on conservation and restoration efforts.”

 

Although the rate of total wetland gain (from restoration) increased 17% from the previous study (1998-2004), the rate of total wetland loss increased 140%.  This resulted in a net wetland loss of approximately 62,300 acres between 2004 and 2009.  Notable among the wetland types that experienced heavy losses in the conterminous U.S. recently were coastal wetlands, specifically estuarine intertidal emergent wetlands, which experienced a loss of 111,500 acres or 2.8%.  These wetlands underwent the highest percentage loss in the entire study, and the losses were three times greater than during the previous study period.  Interestingly, less than 1% of these estuarine losses are attributed to direct anthropogenic activity (Section 404 of the Clean Water Act in addition to state regulations protect them from being filled) while 99% are attributed to physical processes such as coastal storms, land subsidence, and sea-level rise.

These alarming trends highlight the importance of coastal wetlands restoration.

Woods Hole Group has been fortunate to have supported a number of salt marsh restoration projects, both large and small.  These restoration efforts provide important habitat for birds and fish, control invasive plant species, rebuild shellfish beds and restore natural flows of water throughout the system.  We are currently partnered with Massachusetts Division of Ecological Restoration to support wetlands restoration projects throughout the state.

A sampling of our wetlands restoration work:

• 10,000 acres and counting for Delaware Bay Estuary Enhancement Program
• 1,000 acres of salt marsh restoration in progress at Herring River in Welfleet, MA
• 17 acres of wetland and historic herring run restoration completed on Stony Brook in Brewster, MA

Stakeholder-driven ocean management

Source: Coastal Communities Conference

Creating A Blueprint For Our Coast

How can multiple, competing uses co-exist compatibly?

What’s often missing from planning is science-based information that evaluates the compatibility of conflicting uses and environmental impacts. New tools are available to help analyze current and anticipated uses of ocean and coastal areas to enable communities to achieve maximum economic and social benefits while ensuring that the ocean remains ecologically healthy.

There is a near term need to develop a regional response for our waterfront planning since the federal government is working towards a mandatory coastal waters management strategy which includes ecosystem protection.

via Living on the Edge Coastal Communities Conference: Conference.

The Coastal Communities Conference this year focused on Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) – or, as Climatide’s Heather Goldstone might suggest, Cooperative Ocean Zoning (COZ?).  To start things off Stephanie Moura of the Massachusetts Ocean Partnership, John Weber of the Northeast Regional Ocean Council, and Grover Fugate of the Rhode Island Coastal Resources Management Council decribed the theory and practice of CMSP on the national, regional and state scale.  They were followed by a handful of panelists presenting tools and local case studies.

As anthropogenic uses of the ocean and coastal waters increasingly conflict with each other and with ecological processes, the need for accessible high quality data and  stakeholder engagement becomes more important.  The success stories noted at this conference are encouraging, especially when one really puts a pen to map to figure out which ocean uses can co-exist and which ones need to be separated (an exercise that conference attendees engaged in and found incredibly thought-provoking).

One of the presenters noted that in order to manage for healthy seafood, clean beaches, resilient economies, abundant wildlife, and cultural and recreational opportunities in vibrant coastal communities, CMSP incorporates the best available science.  This sort of adaptive management approach presents some exciting opportunities, especially as we learn more about processes and interactions above the ocean, on its surface, in the water column, and on the bottom.  The documentary Ocean Frontiers interviewed a WHOI scientist who was tracking the movements of right whales vertically through the water column.  As we learn more about how other marine organisms and processes utilize the various strata of the ocean, we can pair this with our knowledge of human uses of the depths.  In a future update to an ocean plan, might we be zoning the ocean in three dimensions instead of in plan-view?  Oceans change with time, too, so what about integrated temporal-spatial management?

For now, we’ll settle for cooperative ocean zoning in two dimensions, as it is a giant leap forward for balancing our needs with the health of our oceans.

Ocean Frontiers – A New Era in Ocean Stewardship

Ocean Frontiers.

“Ocean Frontiers: The Dawn of a New Era in Ocean Stewardship”, a documentary about marine spatial planning, was just premiered at the Living on the Edge Coastal Communities Conference.

The documentary showcases the processes and successes realized by multi-stakeholder engagement and ecosystem-based management in the development of marine spatial management plans for Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Massachusetts Bay, coastal Oregon, the Florida Keys, and the Gulf of Mexico.

One noteworthy thread that developed through many of the storylines was that to protect their waters, people realized they needed to look to their lands.  Ocean management planning reached well up into the watersheds in order to resolve conflicting uses – from the Redfish Rocks Marine Reserve up to the coastal mountain streams of Oregon, from the fishing grounds of the Mississippi Delta up to the cornfields of Iowa.

Ocean Frontiers is definitely worth seeing.  Check here for screening information.